And The Beat Goes On: Jan. 28th

Because these posts just aren't the same without the songs:

● Today's big news -- relatively speaking, at least -- is Roy Oswalt reportedly being close to signing a deal with the Cardinals, with other reports surfacing late last night indicating that Oswalt had turned down a one-year, $10 million offer from the Tigers. There's more that can and should (and will) be said about this, but, ultimately, this is probably coming down to Oswalt liking the Rangers, but not liking the value/nature of their offer. And if you follow that idea to its logical conclusion, you find that the idea of Texas ever seriously entertaining a Matt Harrison trade loses quite a bit of its punch.

Because if the Rangers had a favorable trade in the works with Harrison constituting one of the main pieces, I don't think they let that opportunity slip away over a matter of a few million dollars. As things stand now, it seems reasonable to believe that St. Louis is going to throw something like $8-9 million in Oswalt's direction. That's not a negligible amount by any means, but, clearly, there's something -- say, $4-5 million -- that the Rangers probably are willing to pay Oswalt. If there was some kind of brilliant Harrison-centric deal in the works contingent upon the Rangers signing Oswalt, they'd figure out some way to get it done. Not that I'm complaining, mind you, as Harrison seems a good bet to pitch better than Oswalt next season, but that's the thought process I'm rolling with in this situation.

● Randy Galloway wrote yesterday that Josh Hamilton would not be giving the Rangers any sort of hometown discount due to his fierce loyalty to the players' union, and stated that the "fair" offer -- albeit an offer that Hamilton wouldn't seriously entertain -- he would make Hamilton would be three years, $60 million.

● FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal writes that the American League now boasts six superpowers -- the Rangers, Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, Tigers, and Rays.

● Rosenthal also says that baseball is trying to ram through the wild-card expansion quickly enough that it could take effect as early as this October.

● Drew Davison talks about Ron Washington being honored tonight by the Negro Leagues Baseball Museum as the best manager in the American League.

● Apologies for the sporadic work lately. I'll make up for it by writing a 1,500-word retrospective on the Joaquin Arias era.

Of Hamilton, Adductors & The Future

Ever seen a guy with a fake leg?A couple of weeks ago, Josh Hamilton disclosed that what had originally been reported as a groin pull and / or a sports hernia as he sucked it up and fought through the 2011 post-season in excruciating pain was actually neither a groin pull nor a sports hernia.  Not exactly.  It was far more serious.  

Hamilton disclosed that the adductor muscle group in his inner left thigh had almost completely detached.  Hamilton explained that three of the muscles in this group had completely detached and that the fourth one "was about to pop." [Note: the medical research I have found on this matter indicates that there are five muscles in this group -- adductor longus, adductor brevis, adductor magnus, gracilis and pectineus -- not four.]

The reaction of media and fans seemed to be mostly a matter of "wow, it was so gutsy of Hammy to suck it up and play through that. What a guy." And yes,  I agree: You have to respect Hamilton for what he suffered through for the good of the ballclub.

But ever since that news broke, I've been bothered by the nature of this injury and hoping that someone would investigate it further. It hasn't happened yet, so I decided to start to look into it myself.

With Hamilton's contract status beyond the 2012 season in limbo and the public debate on his future with the Rangers beginning to heat up, I think it is worth considering how this injury occurred, how often it occurs with athletes and how successfully athletes who have suffered this injury have returned to action.

Millions in Rangers nation have fallen head-over-heels in love with Hamilton for a wide array of reasons. The story of what Hamilton went through last fall will only create more intense feelings for Hamilton in many quarters.  Fans of Hamilton will understandably want their ballclub to pay the player to stay based in large part, if not exclusively, on what he has done over the past four years.

But smart, successfully run front offices in any sport hand out long-term contracts to players based not on what the player did the last four years, but what the organization believes the player will do over the next four (or five, or six). In Hamilton's case, of course, figuring out what the next four or five years will hold is perhaps harder to figure out than with nearly any other top-shelf position player in my lifetime.

I am not in a position to draw any conclusions about this situation. My aim here is merely to begin a discussion or draw attention to an issue that the Rangers are certain to be considering as they contemplate what sort of offer they will make to keep Hamilton in Arlington or whether they will make any offer at all.

While groin pain or "sports hernia" (clinical term: athletic pubalgia) is certainly not uncommon among professional athletes (but it's not common either, it accounts for 2% - 5% of all sports injuries), it is most commonly seen among soccer players, hockey players, skaters and equestrians.  And completely detached adductors -- the most extreme form of athletic pubalgia --  are extremely rare.  I can find no other examples of a professional baseball player undergoing surgery to repair completely detached adductors. This is not to say that it hasn't happened, but searches for athletes and any combination of the terms detached and adductors come up with three names:  Josh Hamilton, Ladanian Tomlinson and Kevin Youkilis.  It appears that LT never actually had this problem and Youkilis suffered a detached adductor in his thumb, not his groin.

Obviously, this is purely anecdotal "evidence" but it seems logical that if there were more examples of this type of injury occurring with baseball players, it would have been written about somewhere.  Even the medical articles dealing with athletic pubalgia that are available online exhibit a uniform paucity of references to baseball.

By all accounts, one cannot pass this injury off as yet another example of Hamilton's style of play (e.g. the hairline fracture that occurred when diving head first into a bag).  This is a worn out part. It is a repetitive injury, but there seems to be substantial research that indicates that it is not an isolated thing.  There is quite a lot of conjecture in the medical community that athletic pubalgia can be related to degeneration in the lumbar spine which makes the athlete susceptible to this type of injury.

You may recall that the event that sent Josh Hamilton into his descent into the dark side was an automobile accident in which he suffered a lower back injury and ultimately ended his 2001 Double-A season after 23 games.  He has since missed time due to what was described as a lower back pinched nerve (probably a foraminal encroachment in his lumbar spine).

Moreover, it seems clear from the medical research I was able to browse that the abdominal tear that Hamilton also suffered this year is also connected to the athletic pubalgia. It seems not at all uncommon that severe cases of athletic pubalgia indicate a strong possibility of other issues in the core and lower half.  

Hamilton may not be merely unlucky and it may not be as simple as passing his increasing litany of injuries off as a matter of his "style of play."  This severe injury might quite likely be yet another sign of a body that is literally beginning to deteriorate rather significantly. 

I am not a physician and I am not pretending that the sparse amount of research I have done on this issue so far is in any way conclusive. I am merely suggesting that there is quite likely a lot  more to this injury than yet another allegedly isolated and easily explainable incident. Or bad luck. 

You can be sure that the Rangers front office has committed significant time and energy into understanding what Hamilton's body is likely to be like in two, three and four years down the line.  The decision will not be -- cannot be -- made based upon something as simple as some nebulous speculation about whether or not his past drug abuse has aged him beyond his years or whether his extensive injury history can be passed off as his "style of play."  

As I have written before, what has fueled the Rangers' ascent to the top of the sport has been, more than anything, their extraordinary ability to evaluate professional talent.  They seem to evaluate players in every deal better than the other guys do and never has that been more critical than it will be in evaluating Hamilton's value over the next four or five years.  Letting Hamilton walk will be a PR nightmare for the club, but I would suggest that if they do, the decision will probably be based upon a determination that Hamilton's injury history is not merely a series of unfortunate coincidences.

Wednesday Evening Rangers Notes: Yeah, I've Got Nothing

Alright, well, I'm still trying to get back into the right state of mind for this whole blogging thing, so bear with me as I continue to brush that rust off my shoulder:

● Texas was "never close" in terms of either total dollars or years on Prince Fielder, with their only hope of signing him being a precipitous drop in his asking price, meanwhile, ESPN.com's Keith Law speculates on what this means for the Rangers' long-term plans at first base: "Mitch Moreland can't be the long-term answer at first -- he's probably a platoon bat at best -- and they don't have a good first-base prospect in their upper levels, although they do have a top third-base prospect, Mike Olt, coming up behind Adrian Beltre. It's not necessary for them to upgrade at first to contend in the AL West, but it seemed like an obvious area for them to target heading into the offseason. Unless Moreland has an unexpected breakout and starts to hit left-handed pitching, it's probably their biggest untapped opportunity to add a few wins." (T.R. Sullivan, MLB.com)

[Law also remarks that the Rangers "[didn't] appear to have been in that hard on Fielder or Pujols" as part of his questioning of the team's long-term blueprint, which I suppose is completely true -- but, on the flip side, these are both contracts that have serious back-end downside potential (with borderline albatross potential), so I don't know that it's much of a commentary on the Rangers' long-term plans at first base that they didn't go especially "hard" after either option. In any event, going "hard" after Fielder to the extent the Tigers did would have been a terrible idea for Texas, as going just 5-6 years at around $23-24 million per annum would have been enough to induce substantial queasiness, so in no way am I perturbed by the fact that the Rangers never got too serious here.]

● The Rangers are drawing "considerable" trade interest on Koji Uehara -- who invoked his limited no-trade clause in blocking a deal that would have shipped him to Toronto for an undisclosed return -- and, to a presumably lesser extent, Scott Feldman, but there is no indication of a deal being imminent in either case; there's been a lot of buzz about Uehara wanting to return to Baltimore, but the Rangers haven't hammered anything out there as of yet, and there are said to be clubs even more interested in Uehara than the Orioles (T.R. Sullivan, MLB.com)

[Uehara is drawing a lot of ire for his rejection of a potential deal to Toronto, which I can understand from the perspective of a fan because, well, it's reasonable to believe that the proposed deal held some appeal to the Rangers in the form of young talent coming back their way. They apparently found something that worked in both Uehara's and their own best interests, and Uehara decided to blow it up, and that's no doubt frustrating. On the other hand, though, this isn't a case of Uehara circumventing the process as a means of attempting to control his fate, and a lot of this ire seems of the residual sort after his second-half struggles in Texas -- struggles that I don't expect will continue if he should remain in Texas, as he still profiles as an above-average late-inning reliever going in 2012.]

● According to MLB.com's Peter Gammons, two general managers believe Roy Oswalt wants to land in Texas and one more believes he'd like to sign with the Cardinals; per CBSSports.com's Jon Heyman, the Red Sox have reportedly made Oswalt an offer, but are unsure of his interest level, as he has yet to accept or decline their offer; Heyman also notes that mutual interest exists between the Rangers and Oswalt, but also mentions that Oswalt isn't "really a fit, so it'd have to be at [the Rangers'] price" (Jon Heyman, Twitter)

[This talk of Oswalt wanting to be a Ranger sounds similar to what we heard about Fielder wanting to be a Ranger, by which I mean that Oswalt wanting to be a Ranger doesn't really mean much of anything unless Texas is willing to come very close to matching his best offer. You also have to figure that a healthy Oswalt may furnish a talent upgrade of just one additional win or less in 2012, and that the likelihood of Oswalt remaining healthy over the entire life of a one- or two-year deal is not good, given his severe back problems and the likely debilitating effects of just one setback.

I would imagine that Oswalt will get around $8-10 million for 2012 with either a team option or an extra guaranteed year for 2013, and I don't expect that the Rangers are going to want to make a commitment at that level ... unless, of course, they're angling towards a Matt Harrison/Derek Holland trade, or harbor substantial concern about the current seven-man rotation depth chart remaining operational deep into the season.]

Life After Prince Fielder, And The Josh Hamilton Extension Thing

I've got an unusually large pile of stuff mounting that I'm itching to write about, and though I probably shouldn't be taking the time at this horrifically early hour to whittle the pile down, there is something weighing heavily on my mind that I want to go ahead and throw out there this morning. Actually, this is an even bigger waste of time than I'd care to admit in the sense that this is going to be one of the dominant topics of conversation for the next 10-11 months, but let's go ahead and push forward on it anyway.

With Prince Fielder now removed from the pool of available long-term options, we're going to be inundated with an abundance of do-or-don't-sign-Josh-Hamilton discussion, and Gil LeBreton has gotten the ball rolling on that front this morning, with his suggestion being that Texas open up negotiations with Hamilton's camp at the four-year, $72 million point, and integrate bonuses into the deal that would pay Hamilton $125,000 per game beyond the 125-game mark -- in effect, paying him like a $17-18 million player through games 1-125, and then paying him like a $20 million player through games 126-162 if he should manage to remain healthy enough to activate those incentives. 

And, ultimately, the idea here seems to boil down to paying Hamilton between $90-115 million over the life of a five-year deal, with the variance between those two endpoints again being the per-game incentives beyond game 125. The proposed structure itself seems reasonable, but the dollar amounts should make just about anyone skittish, and I don't know that I completely agree with LeBreton's statement that a deal of this kind "shouldn't cripple franchise finances over the next four or five seasons." Cripple? No, probably not. But let's not pretend that a whiff on this deal by the Rangers in terms of bang for the buck wouldn't be a material setback for the franchise.

There's something else from LeBreton's column that's bugging me a bit, as well:

In four seasons with the Rangers, he has been on the disabled list three times and twice has missed most of September with injuries. In four years, he's missed almost one entire season's worth of games.

There isn't a team in the majors that wouldn't factor that into any contract negotiations.

At the same time, however, Hamilton shouldn't have to be penalized for games that he may not miss. That's why both agent Moye and general manager Jon Daniels need to be creative with Hamilton's new contract.

When he plays and is healthy, there is nothing to suggest that Hamilton isn't one of baseball's best players. He should be paid accordingly -- $20 million per full season.

I appreciate the sentiment, but shouldn't the penalty incurred by Hamilton be implicit within the structure of the deal? In other words, shouldn't he be bearing the "penalty" -- which is a funny term, given the stakes we're talking about here -- for all of his missed time right from the get-go in the form of diminished guaranteed dollars/years? And, of course, even if Hamilton actually is one of baseball's best players "when he plays and is healthy" (which are two particularly huge qualifers in his case), to what extent can you feel confident in him being able to maintain that level of production onward into his declining years -- the years during which you'd be paying him as though he was performing like a superstar?

And with that somewhat disjointed series of thoughts out of the way, so begins life after Prince ... which wasn't really life after all because he ultimately landed elsewhere, so I guess that's actually death. Yeah. Welcome to death.

Report: Prince Fielder "Very Close" To Nine-Year Deal With Tigers

Well, this never really was too much more than a long shot disguised as a more realistic shot, and all indications this afternoon are that we're about to be able to move on from Prince Fielder, as the USA Today's Bob Nightengale is reporting that the Rangers "believe they are out of the bidding for free-agent slugger Prince Fielder, according to a person with knowledge of the talks, but not authorized to speak publicly because of the ongoing negotiations.

Meanwhile, FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal has reported in the last hour that both the Marlins and Orioles are also out on Fielder, and ESPN.com's Jason Churchill has noted that the Mariners are out as well, while also indicating that Fielder and the Nationals may be moving towards an eight-year agreement. Nothing is official yet on this particular front, but it appears that the Nationals -- who were reportedly averse to tendering a seriously long-term offer -- have caved to the Fielder camp's demands for something spanning at least eight years. There's also no immediate word on whether key opt-out provisions would be integrated into the deal, but I daresay their inclusion wouldn't really surprise much of anyone.

[2:00 p.m. update: Per Yahoo! Sports' Tim Brown, the fabled "mystery team" has leapt out of nowhere, as the Tigers are now said to be "very close" to finishing up a nine-year deal with the Tigers.

2:05 p.m. update: According to CBSSports.com's Jon Heyman, Fielder is getting a nine-year, $214 million deal from the Tigers. That's not likely to turn out very well for Detroit.]

Assuming that the Rangers actually are done with Fielder and have no designs on further bolstering their first base situation, we can expect to see Mitch Moreland -- or possibly Brad Hawpe, should Moreland be delayed in spring training after coming off wrist surgery -- holding down first base the majority of the time this season, with Mike Napoli chewing up some plate appearances there on days that he's not catching, and Michael Young also receiving a decent-sized chunk of playing time. That amalgamation of parts isn't going to give you Fielder-esque production (or even a reasonable facsimile thereof), but it shouldn't kill the Rangers, either, and they should still end up going into the 2012 season as close favorites to win their third consecutive division championship.

Texas has been connected to Fielder for an extended period of time, and there have been times over the last few weeks where we've actually had some reason to feel a little confident about a deal being hammered out (e.g. after the surreptitious Fielder sighting at the Four Seasons resort in Dallas), but the reality is that the Rangers are justifiably skittish about going 7-8 years on Fielder, and that the team -- which currently projects to have an Opening Day payroll right around the $125 million mark -- is reportedly operating at a deficit as is. This is probably a case where both the baseball operations department and ownership are in lockstep as far as not wanting to commit to Fielder at a level above and beyond $20 million per year into the third decade of this millennium.

Tuesday Morning Rangers Notes: Peace Out, Koji?

Some quick stuff out there this morning, as I finish working through this latest rough patch:

● CBSsports.com's Jon Heyman classifies the Rangers as "in, but not [a] favorite" on Prince Fielder, despite the strong mutual interest between two camps one general manager told FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal that the Rangers were still going "hard" after Fielder, who was then summarily informed by others that Texas wouldn't go heavy on guaranteed years; one source told ESPN.com's Jason Churchill that the Nationals' purported heavy interest in signing Fielder was overstated, while another source told the Washington Post's Adam Kilgore that he would be "stunned" by an offer in excess of seven years from Washington; Kilgore also predicted that Fielder would ultimately pull down a seven-year, $170 million deal (Twitter)

● Both the Orioles and Blue Jays are actively expressing interest in right-hander Koji Uehara, who stands to collect $4 million in guaranteed money next season and who reportedly expressed a desire earlier this off-season -- granted, per a somewhat disconnected report -- to return to Baltimore; should Uehara be dealt to Toronto, he would be required to waive his no-trade clause; according to Gerry Fraley, any deal shipping Uehara out of Texas would recoup a "low-level" prospect and salary relief (Dallas Morning News)

[I don't really like the concept of dealing Uehara out of a concern for salary relief and/or a belief that the Rangers' in-house alternatives can furnish similar production out of the bullpen, and you shouldn't either, but I get it ... I think. The problem is that he demonstrated an aptitude for absolutely smothering left-handed hitters, and so what you're likely going to end up seeing is Uehara being replaced by another left-hander, lest Michael Kirkman end up as the only southpaw at the dugout's disposal. If that's someone like, say, Mike Gonzalez, you're really not saving much of anything, and you may very well be downgrading your expected bullpen production. Seeing as how nothing has happened here yet, though, I'm not going to spend any more time pondering my potential disappointment with a Uehara trade.]

● Josh Hamilton says that he has not heard anything from his agent recently with regard to a long-term contract extension, and is still holding to his pledge to sever long-term contract talks once he reports to spring training next month; per Jeff Wilson, however, conversations between the Rangers and Hamilton's agent are still ongoing, and assistant general manager Thad Levine asserted that the club had prioritized signing Hamilton now that the Yu Darvish signing was in the bag (Richard Durrett, ESPNDallas.com; Jeff Wilson, Fort Worth Star-Telegram)

Monday Morning Open Thread: Three Questions

1. By the beginning of the 2013 calendar year, Josh Hamilton may very well no longer be a part of the Rangers organization, and by the end of the 2013 calendar year, Michael Young might also find himself in the employ of another organization. I'm not sold on the idea that Texas would let both of these fan favorites walk in free agency, but let's say the team does decide to go that route. In your opinion, whose departure would create more in the way of both local media and fan uproar: Young's, or Hamilton's?

2. Clay Davenport's initial season projections are beginning to trickle out, and they feature a radically optimistic take on the Rangers' starting rotation:

Yu Darvish: 200.2 IP, 212 K, 53 BB, 2.64 ERA
Derek Holland: 190.0 IP, 158 K, 64 BB, 3.88 ERA
Colby Lewis: 189.1 IP, 169 K, 53 BB, 3.47 ERA
Matt Harrison: 148.0 IP, 103 K, 51 BB, 4.09 ERA
Neftali Feliz: 139.0 IP, 133 K, 56 BB, 3.09 ERA

Now that you have a rough idea of what this particular forecasting system thinks of the Rangers' starting rotation, tell me whether you think each of these five will finish over or under their Davenport projections in terms overall performance. Don't look solely at ERA.

3. Now that we've run through the question of the maximum amount that we would feel okay about the Rangers offering Hamilton, it's time to ask this -- what, ultimately, do you think Hamilton is going to end up getting in terms of years and total dollars from either the Rangers or a team on the open market? (Possible apropos of nothing: The Chicago Tribune's Phil Rogers is skeptical that Hamilton would fetch more than four years and $60 million on the open market.)

Saturday Morning Rangers Notes: All Yu Needs Is One Mic

Can we pump this song into the Ballpark right before Darvish's starts so as to further unsettle the other team's hitters? Thanks.Some stuff out there this morning:

● Yu Darvish was formally introduced to the Metroplex during last night's press conference, and evidently acquitted himself well in front of the several hundred reporters on hand, who were joined by Jon Daniels, Ron Washington, and Josh Hamilton (but not Nolan Ryan, whose absence stemmed from prior obligations); since I'm assuming you want to read every possible account of the presser, you can go here for Richard Durrett's story, or here for T.R. Sullivan's story, or here for Jeff Wilson's story, or here for Anthony Andro's story, or here for Gil LeBreton's story, or here for Jean-Jacques Taylor's story (various sources)

● ESPN.com's Jason Churchill says he is hearing that the Prince Fielder race is all about two teams, both of which play in the American League and one of which is, in fact, the Rangers; yesterday, Churchill stated that he was betting that Fielder would sign by Tuesday (Twitter)

● According to Rangers principal owner Bob Simpson, the team is currently operating at a deficit and will continue to operate at a deficit until the new TV deal kicks in before the 2015 season; this, however, does not automatically mean that the Rangers will not pursue Fielder, though doing so would be contingent upon Fielder's price dropping and Fielder being amenable to a back-loaded deal, with Simpson remarking that the Rangers would "take a look at it" if the Fielder camp "[came] around to something [Texas] could do"; in the meantime, ownership is utilizing its own money to fund capital improvements at the Ballpark (including the new video board and Vandergriff Plaza renovations), tackle debt left over from the Tom Hicks regime, and pay Chuck Greenberg's buyout; on a related note, Simpson also acknowledged that the recent Rangers ticket price hikes were tied to the team's historic investment in Darvish (Jeff Wilson, Fort Worth Star-Telegram; Brad Townsend, Dallas Morning News)

Green Eggs And Ham

I do not like green eggs and ham.

Substitute Prince Fielder for green eggs and ham and you arrive at my dogged stance on the current free agent and potential Rangers acquisition. I could see why people like the idea, but every time I found myself actually contemplating those greenbacks for ham, it just felt wrong. 

Let’s get this out of the way first: Prince Fielder is a very good hitter, ranging from good to great over the past five years. Mitch Moreland, the team’s erstwhile first baseman, is the sort of player that decent teams can live with when he’s healthy, but not the sort of player an elite team would prefer to pencil into its lineup 120 times a year. Put these two things together and you get a hot stove dream.

However, upon further inspection, there are a lot of reasons he just does not fit. Most of these reasons revolve around his desired contract -- a contract that I had assumed some unfortunate team would be willing to pay him. We’ll come back to this later, but let’s for the moment assume that it will take eight years to sign Prince (though perhaps not all guaranteed). This is less than the 10 years originally floated by his agent, Scott Boras, and less than the older Albert Pujols signed for, but at an average annual value (AAV) of $20-25 million (for a grand total of $160-200 million) is a much greater commitment than I am comfortable with. 

On the face of it, this may be surprising to people.  Using the $5 million-per-win above replacement benchmark as a general guideline for this off-season’s free agency period, an contract with an AAV of $20-25 million would seem to be fair value given that Fielder has averaged almost 4.5 WAR over the past five years and just over 5.0 WAR over his past three years. Signing for eight years would pay him through his age-35 season, an age at which many players can still provide value (and also the age at which Albert Pujols will still be owed $190 million over seven years). 

Fielder has been worth what he is seeking for his AAV the past five years, does that convince you?

No, I still do not like this, Sam I am.  The problem is that I do not expect Prince Fielder to age well into his age 35 season. FanGraphs briefly discussed the topic here of how heavier players age, though I do not hold my stubborn stance based solely on this one (limited) data set.  How an individual ages can vary greatly from the average; moreover, there are different types of ‘big’.  However, I do not think we should dismiss this information out of hand either. The findings of that study would appear to me to apply less to an Albert Pujols type, but Prince Fielder likely falls right into middle of the group identified here. Simply put, Prince Fielder is round. He has a body type and size that often lead to early onset of complications such as knee, hip and back problems or metabolic issues like diabetes. These can also be seen in other sports like football (specifically offensive and defensive linemen) and in non-athletes. 

This is not to say that Prince Fielder is guaranteed to be injured.  He has been remarkably healthy so far, playing in over 150 games the past six years. However, he has not yet hit the age where these complications normally begin. Signing him from age 27-35? That is taking on significant risk.

Still, isn’t taking on that much risk long term worth it because of where the Rangers are on the win curve right now and how good of a player Prince is? 

Sorry, Sam, but I still hesitant. I readily admit that Prince would likely be the best hitter on the team next year, but people seem to be glossing over the drawbacks to Prince as a player. Fielder has been a poor defender (as measured by UZR, DRS or TZL), and this is backed by what scouting reports we have available and most anybody who has watched him [insert your own misnomer joke here]. First base is probably the least important position defensively, but it gets worse. In addition to virtually never stealing a base, Fielder has had a negative BSR (FanGraphs baserunning statistic), averaging -5.5 runs per year.  This problem is compounded by the fact that Fielder would likely hit in the middle of the lineup to maximize the value of his bat, but in turn reduce some of the effectiveness of the Rangers’ generally excellent baserunning abilities. 

Again, all of this is occurring during his likely peak years in terms of speed and agility. For further evidence that all of Prince’s value is derived from his bat, see the graph which looks at his offensive production (wRC+) and value provided in runs (RAR) by year. Notice a correlation? There is a very real chance that he would have to be moved to DH half way through an eight-year contract.

But what about Prince Fielder moving into a park that was ostensibly a left hand power hitter’s Valhalla? 

About that, Sam. People seem to be forgetting that Milwaukee also hosts one of the more LHB-friendly stadia in the game. Park factors set 100 as average; RBiA and Miller Park grade out similarly for left hand bats, both in terms of home runs (119 vs 118, respectively) and overall hitting as measured by wOBA (103 vs 100, respectively). Prince Fielder has already been hitting in a LHB-friendly spot; there is unlikely to be much improvement based just on this.

Ok, you intransigent, red-capped, curmudgeon, what about the fact that there are very rarely elite hitters like Prince on the free agency market?

I do not like how he ran, I would not like it this long term plan. It is true that hitters of Prince Fielder’s caliber do not often hit free agency; however, there are hitters who can give you 80 percent of Prince Fielder’s production for much, much less. While the Rangers have struggled to consistently get production out of first base since the Mark Teixeira trade, it’s important to realize how large the pool of defensively-limited, above-average-hitting players is. This is not as difficult a position to fill as No. 1 starting pitcher or third base; this is a position that good hitters migrate to as they age and their defense falls off.

Even overlooking that a healthy Mitch Moreland is probably a below-average to average player next year, there were 16 first basemen last year who put up wRCs+ over 115.  Considering the strength of the rest of the lineup, I am not at all convinced it makes sense to take on that much long term risk when there are likely to be many players available in free agency and through trade who can be good enough.

You do not like them, so you say. Try them! Try them and you may!

Sam! If you will let me be, I will try them.  Hmmm…

There are a few arguments that do make me waver. The first revolves around work done by Bill James quite some time ago that showed that power often develops later than other skills. You may have noticed that I previously called Prince a very good hitter, and not elite or some other superlative. This is because while he has had some excellent hitting seasons, he’s also mixed in some merely very good seasons over the past five years. Usually, this can be attributed to random luck or noise that is seen in a highly variable BABIP.

However, as seen below, Fielder’s BABIP has not varied that much by season, ranging from .283-.315, and what variance we see does not particularly align well with the variance in his offensive output (wRC+). Interestingly, Fielder’s ISO, a measurement of power, correlates very well with his total offensive output. Moreover, the third image shows that the variance in power looks to correlate fairly well with Fielder’s HR/FB rate.

I find this fascinating. Baseball analysis now allows us to measure many, many different types of contributions to a team’s success. including types of contact, walk rate, measurements of power, defense, and baserunning. Despite all of this, most of Fielder’s value over the past five years can be attributed to how far he hit his fly balls. 

This is where I think age does come into play. While I don’t think Fielder should be treated as most 27-year-old free agents in terms of projecting how kind aging will be over a long-term contract, I do think that he has a chance to further develop his power. This could manifest itself as an increase in power, or perhaps just as an ability to consistently maintain his previous peaks. Given how much of his value is derived from his power, this could create the sort of excess value early in the contract to help offset the risk of future injury-plagued years. 

A more recent development in the Fielder sweepstakes is that the previously small market seems to have narrowed even further. Miami seems to be out and wasn't a great fit to begin with; Seattle now has Justin Smoak and Jesus Montero for their 1B/DH combo; even Toronto seems a bit hesitant despite being one of the favorites early in the process. Common wisdom right now suggests that this will come down to Prince Fielder deciding between taking less money to play for a contender in the Texas Rangers, or taking more money from a team like the Washington Nationals and put off contending for a few years. News has seemed to slow to see how the Yu Darvish signing would affect the market, but it would not surprise me to see our old friend Mystery Team pop up again before this is all done.

There is one more thing I should add about Prince Fielder for those vigilant few who have made it this far.  While the long term ramifications scare me, even I have to admit ... the 2012 Texas Rangers lineup would be absolutely stunning if they added Prince Fielder, even with likely regression from players like Mike Napoli. That is a lineup (to go with a rotation) that will make the Rangers must see viewing and give it the chance to be a once in a decade type of offense with above average hitters for position at every spot in the lineup except possibly CF.  The depth would also be fantastic.  So, I guess what I’m trying to say is ...

I do so like
green eggs and ham!
Thank you!
Thank you,
Sam-I am!

Yu Darvish, The Win Curve, And The Genius Of The Contract

Yu Darvish is now officially divorced, so, uh, look for him when you're out partying I guess.It began with rumblings that Yu Darvish was seeking something in the vicinity of C.J. Wilson money. Then, it was that he was looking for a five-year deal with an average annual value near $20 million. Then, it was talk of Darvish's people wanting at least $65 million over five years. And three months ago, a six-man collective of agents and executives predicted that Darvish would ultimately pull down a five- or six-year deal worth between $72-75 million. In the waning hours before the deadline, I finally decided that something along the lines of six years and $70 million made the most sense from the standpoint of satiating all involved parties.

Value-wise, the Rangers beat all of those projections. Some were admittedly easier to beat than others, but they beat them all in the end. They arguably even beat the Daisuke Matsuzaka contractual benchmark, in the sense that the amount of money needed to purchase one additional win through the open market has risen over the last five years -- though to be certain, this deal wasn't negotiated by means of the open market -- and in the sense that Darvish, by virtue of his stratospheric upside, has the potential to create more in the way of surplus value than Matsuzaka was projected to create at the outset of his own deal. On the grand spectrum of potential outcomes, this contract is about as close to the highly favorable end of the spectrum as any of us could have possibly hoped for.

There still appears to be some amount of disagreement between the national and local media types regarding the exact structure of the Darvish contract, but here is what I've pieced together thus far:

● The contract spans five guaranteed years and includes the potential for a sixth-year player option (which would allow Darvish the opportunity to opt out of his deal after five years or stick around for the full duration of the contract); however, this sixth-year player option can reportedly only be triggered by "multiple elite-level finishes [in the Cy Young balloting]," meaning that in order for Darvish to acquire the ability to opt out of his deal after five years, he would need to pitch at a very-to-exceptionally high level over the course of those five years (during which time he would no doubt produce gobs of surplus value for the Rangers); 

● The contract reportedly guarantees Darvish $56 million over those six years, with another $4 million taking the form of roster bonuses -- bringing the total commitment to that oft-cited $60 million figure -- and another lump sum being disbursed if Darvish should win a Cy Young Award; it's still not clear whether this CYA-related lump sum is the potential $10 million in bonus money that was cited in multiple Yahoo! Sports reports, but it's possible that they are both one and the same; 

● The $51.7 million posting fee is now payable in full to Hokkaido within five business days, but will be evenly apportioned such that only $8.6 million will count against the team's payroll during each of the six seasons that Darvish is expected to be under contract; and 

● The contract does not include any deferred money, which conforms with the Rangers' current averseness to deferred-money deals (which probably owes to the sting of owing guys like Alex Rodriguez nine figures in deferred money years after they've left town; as far as I'm aware, Michael Young is now the only current Ranger with deferred money built into his contract); 

[In case I haven't made it sufficiently clear yet, I really dig this deal on the surface; I'll wait until the year-by-year breakdown leaks before passing final initial judgment, though.]

With all of this in mind, the key figure for the total commitment is $111.7 million over six years, or a somewhat lesser amount -- probably somewhere between $95-100 million -- over five years in the event that Darvish turns out to be trans-Pacific dynamite, pitches like a monster, and bolts after the 2016 season. What makes this number especially interesting is that Dan Szymborski's median projection for Darvish had him producing 22.4 wins above replacement over the next five years, which, assuming a uniform annual growth rate of three percent over that period, also had Darvish's open-market worth being ... $112 million.

The only thing throwing a wrench into what would otherwise be a near-perfect match between contract and expected value is the inclusion of that sixth year; if Darvish does produce at an All-Star-to-elite level as Dan projects, he'll blow past that $112 million mark in the fifth or sixth year. Granted, the expected value itself is a wrench, because this is a high-beta player with a lot more variance in the range of expected outcomes than we see with most major league pitchers -- but, still the overarching point stands.

The other big things worth keeping in mind are the additional dollars created on the marketing front (Maury Brown previously speculated that additional sponsorship money alone could run into $20-30 million territory, while Evan Grant now speculates that the Rangers might only see $1 million extra per season from greater competition for in-stadium advertising), the abundant potential for increased ticket sales (adding wins does, after all, drive attendance), the fact that the Rangers will recoup a portion of their $51.7 million posting fee in the form of a tax break (meaning this isn't a true $111.7 million outlay) ... and a very positive impact on the Rangers' position relative to the win curve.

Ah, yes, the win curve. Embrace the win curve, because the win curve undoubtedly played a material role in compelling the Rangers to cross the finish line on Darvish. If the Rangers were projected to be downright lousy (<75 wins) or insanely good (96> wins) throughout the foreseeable future, making the single largest financial commitment to any right-handed pitcher in baseball history wouldn't make nearly as much sense, because adding Darvish wouldn't have a significant impact on the Rangers' post-season odds either way. Instead, we have the Rangers right in the thick of things in terms of post-season probability, with comparatively little separating them and the Angels.

That's where adding a couple of wins can make all of the difference. That's where it makes the most sense to pull the trigger on a signing like this. And if there's still any modicum of hope that the Rangers might find a deal that's mutually beneficial to both themselves and Prince Fielder, it's their position on the win curve that's going to help feed their desire to get something figured out.

One chapter ends, and the next begins. We just have to wait 2½ more months to get to it.

Darvish, Rangers Agree To Terms On Six-Year, $60 Million Deal

It's over and done with and finished, and Yu Darvish is officially locked in as a member of the Texas Rangers organization.

Per numerous sources on Twitter, the Rangers have agreed to terms with Yu Darvish this afternoon on a six-year, $60 million deal that could potentially pay out another $10 million in bonuses (per Yahoo! Sports' Jeff Passan); financial specifics of the deal beyond that reported framework have not yet been disclosed, however. Darvish, his representatives Don Nomura and Arn Tellem, and the Rangers had until 4:00 p.m. CST this afternoon to formally agree to terms on a deal, and seemed to cross the finish line in the last couple of hours, with multiple reports indicating in the final hour that an agreement had been reached, and the remaining delays were simply a matter of crossing the t's and dotting the i's.

Combined with the $51.7 million posting fee, we're looking at a total commmitment of $111.7 million over six years with the potential to cross the $120 million threshold -- an eventuality that would be most welcome if it were to actually pass, as the activation of those bonuses would very likely only come about if he were both healthy and productive. And seeing as how a healthy and productive Darvish has the potential to be a perennial All-Star with elite-level upside, I would like nothing better than to see this deal end up being maxed out in value.

[Update: The deal is reportedly a five-year deal with a sixth-year player option, and not six guaranteed years. If the deal is heavily backloaded, it may be that the sixth-year player option could pay out enough to make it worth Darvish's while and compel him to remain in Texas even if he could fetch a larger guaranteed deal on the open market after five years. Otherwise, that player option isn't likely to work to the Rangers' advantage: if he's good, there's a strong chance that he'll exercise that opt-out clause and leave Texas after five years, and if he's a disaster, there's a strong chance he'll remain in Texas for that sixth year. 

Meanwhile, Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram is reporting that the deal actually guarantees Darvish $56 million, with the ability for him to make up to $4 million in bonuses. It's not immediately clear which report between Passan's and Wilson's is correct on the matter of Darvish's potential bonus money, though I imagine that's one of the things that will end up being clarified in the next 12-24 hours. Maybe.]

With Darvish now safely in the fold, the Rangers can craft their starting rotation from some combination of Colby Lewis, Derek Holland, Alexi Ogando, Matt Harrison, Neftali Feliz, and Darvish, with the likelihood being that Ogando will be moved back to the bullpen to accommodate the off-season additions of Feliz and Darvish to the rotation. Even with that being the case from the outset of the season, though, it may be that the Rangers end up turning back to Ogando -- and possibly Scott Feldman, as well -- as starters more than once during the 2012 season as a means of protecting guys like Harrison and Feliz from fatigue-induced breakdowns. Darvish is talented, supremely talented even, and that's a precious and wonderful thing ... but he also adds depth, and depth may very well end up being one of the deciding factors that puts Texas over the top next season.

For now, though, we find ourselves in the terribly enviable position of being able to celebrate both what is right now and what could be not very long from now. We're all itching to see Darvish take the hill for the first time during that opening homestand, but don't lose your grasp on the good feelings of right now in your excitement for the future. Enjoy it all and soak it all in, because we probably won't always be this lucky.

Yu Darvish Signing Deadline Apocalypse Death Chat

The Yu Darvish Waiting Thread

Hang out in here until the live chat gets underway. Or do whatever you want.

And The Beat Goes On: Jan. 18th

Happy Yu Darvish signing day, everyone. Unless, of course, it isn't. But it probably will be. To celebrate that probability, I'm tentatively planning a special Yu Darvish signing deadline apocalypse chat early this afternoon ... unless, of course, he decides to agree to terms before then. To get you pumped about today, here's a nice morning song with some lyrics that you can twist to fit the Darvish drama if you really work hard at it:

● Jeff Wilson writes about decision day being at hand. Jon Paul Morosi writes that the revival of the Rangers is about to take yet another step forward. Jon Heyman's sources close to the Darvish negotiations believe that he'll ultimately sign for something only slightly above and beyond Daisuke Matsuzaka's six-year, $52 million deal of five years ago.

Ben Rogers says on Twitter that his optimism over a deal getting done has dropped "slightly," and that he feels as though this is going to come down to the last minute.

● Texas managed to get a slew of deals done yesterday with their potential arbitration cases, including:

Mark Lowe: One year, $1.7 million
David Murphy: One year, $3.625 million
Mike Adams: One year, $4.4 million
Matt Harrison: One year, $2.95 million

As for the outstanding cases, here are the figures currently in play:

Mike Napoli: Offered $8.3 million (by Texas), asked for $11.5 million
Nelson Cruz: Offered $5.5 million, asked for $7.5 million
Elvis Andrus: Offered $2.65 million, asked for $3.6 million

The only case that has any real potential of going to arbitration is Napoli's, and I find it hard to imagine that the Rangers would subject both themselves and a critical piece of next year's hopeful championship ballclub to such a stressful process with such potential for acrimony over a matter of a couple million dollars.

● T.R. Sullivan writes that Alexi Ogando would accept a bullpen role if deemed necessary, which is great and all, because I don't think he would have much in the way of recourse if he decided to reject a bullpen role. He also indicates that the team isn't keen on the idea of stripping Matt Harrison of his rotation spot in favor of keeping Ogando in the rotation, which means that everything is setting up as though Ogando will begin the season as the team's No. 6 starter. There's also stuff on Matt West and Tommy Mendonca finding their sea legs at their "new" positions (pitcher and catcher, respectively), and Michael Kirkman and Martin Perez being considered as potential lefty relief candidates coming out of spring training. 

● Evan Grant says Scott Boras is itching for the Darvish deal to fall through for the benefit of Fielder. Gil LeBreton writes about the revamped rotation and the prospect of the Rangers signing Fielder. Michael Rosenberg believes that Darvish's season-long separation from his two young sons could be a problem. 

Tuesday Morning Rangers Notes: 32 Hours And Counting

A few things out there this morning, as we all wait for something of significance to happen with Yu Darvish:

● The Rangers still expect that they will get a deal done with Yu Darvish before Wednesday's 4:00 p.m. CST signing deadline, provided that everyone -- according to sources -- remains "fair and reasonable"; however, they are not expecting to sign Prince Fielder assuming that they finish the Darvish deal, and "might" only turn their attention towards Fielder in the unlikely event that the Darvish deal falls through; the Rangers have also inquired on Roy Oswalt, but he is considered to be part of the backup plan that would be activated only in the event that Darvish is not signed; to sum it all up, the company line is that Fielder is only an option if the Rangers don't sign Darvish (T.R. Sullivan, MLB.com)

● Evan Grant believes that the Rangers will (a) sign Darvish to a five- or six-year deal with an average annual value between $10-11 million and (b) sign Roy Oswalt, and would have to (c) offer Prince Fielder a seven-year deal in order to get something done on that front; he also remarks that it's "very, very clear" that Fielder wants to be a Ranger, based upon the fact that he's held out from signing for so long (Dallas Morning News)

● Josh Hamilton's father-in-law has bowed out of his expected role as Hamilton's full-time accountability partner, citing family reasons; though Hamilton is apparently now saying that he doesn't need an accountability partner, the Rangers are expected to name somebody to that role in the near future anyway (Richard Durrett, ESPNDallas.com)